05202018Sun
Last updateFri, 18 May 2018 4pm

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The Past, Present and Future of Fire Testing

The Past, Present and Future of Fire Testing

Because so many of the applications wher...

Advancements in Blue Laser Scanning

Advancements in Blue Laser Scanning

As the industrial world continues to exp...

Cavitation in Globe Valves—and Proposed Solutions

Cavitation in Globe Valves—and Proposed Solutions

Straight pattern globe valves are widely...

The VMA Knowledge Forum, Part Two: The Human Factor

The VMA Knowledge Forum, Part Two: The Human Factor

Finding and retaining the right talent i...

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Industry Headlines

Emerson Agrees to Buy Aventics

Friday, 18 May 2018  |  Chris Guy

Emerson has agreed on terms to acquire Aventics from Triton for a cash purchase price of $620 million. Aventics deals in smart pneumatics technologies...

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Industry Headlines

Emerson Agrees to Buy Aventics

2 DAYS AGO

Emerson has agreed on terms to acquire Aventics from Triton for a cash purchase price of $620 million. Aventics deals in smart pneumatics technologies that power machine and factory automation applications. Aventics significantly expands Emerson’s reach in a growing $13 billion market.

With cen...

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Conval Names Brian White Refining & Chemical Industry Manager

3 DAYS AGO

Conval has appointed Brian E. White as refining & chemical industry manager serving the petrochemical industry in the Gulf states and elsewhere as opportunities and needs arise.

Based in Houston, White has over 20 years of experience selling instrumentation and capital equipment to the oil & ga...

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Outside of U.S., Natural Gas Outlook Diminishing

3 DAYS AGO

The mood in the natural gas industry, at least outside the U.S., is not as optimistic as it once was. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand has slowed considerably for most of the period since 2011, from an average of 2.8% per year between 2000 and 2010, to 1.4% per year from 2011...

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ExxonMobil, BASF Form Gas Treating Alliance

4 DAYS AGO

ExxonMobil Catalysts and Licensing LLC and BASF Corporation have signed an alliance agreement to jointly develop new gas treating solvents and process technologies for use in natural gas processing and petroleum refining. Under this new agreement , BASF will market and license technologies developed f...

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Leading Economic Indicators Up 0.4% in April

2 DAYS AGO

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4% in April to 109.4, following a 0.4% increase in March, and a 0.7% increase in February.

April’s increase and continued uptrend in the U.S. LEI suggest solid growth should continue in the second half of 2018. How...

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U.S. Factory Output Rose in April

3 DAYS AGO

Industrial production rose 0.7% in April for its third consecutive monthly increase. The rates of change for industrial production for previous months were revised downward, on net; for the first quarter, output is now reported to have advanced 2.3% at an annual rate.

Manufacturing output moved up 0.5...

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2008 Market Outlook: Another Good Year

But get ready for a down cycle as we near the end of the first decade of the new millenium.

When members of the Valve Manufacturers Association gathered in Coronado Beach, CA in August for the association’s Annual Market Outlook Workshop, they listened intently to forecasts from a bakers’ dozen of economists and industry prognosticators. While much of the news was positive—most of the end-user industries served by VMA members appear to be on track for another healthy year—they also heard words of caution. In more than one instance, presenters mentioned the “R” word (recession), giving attendees plenty of food for thought as they plan beyond 2008. Two other themes echoed by speakers? The ever-dwindling workforce and the need to recognize how the North American valve industry is inextricably intertwined with the rest of the world.

 

A Recession is Coming

Alan Beaulieu, economist for the Institute for Trend Research, had some disquieting news for Outlook attendees: This nation will see a recession in the year 2010.

However, he insisted the news was not necessarily all bad.

The good news is, we have a couple more quarters of prosperity,” he said.

Beaulieu said the economy is running just about where he predicted it would go at last year’s workshop, though he’s lowered the figures somewhat for the rest of 2007 and 2008. By 2009, the economy will start to go weak and by 2010, it will take a dip, he said.

“We have no empirical indications yet, but home prices are just the tip of the iceberg,” Beaulieu said. He expects to see oil prices heating up this winter, edging up above $80/barrel in the first half of next year. He also said wage inflation in many sectors has already started.

And he said the Fed will raise rates by 50 to 75 basis points in early 2008, “which doesn’t sound like much,” but, as a nation that carries a lot of debt, the extra $400 a month per household that would result, for instance, could have a chilling effect.

Also, by 2010 there will be a new president who will be facing a number of problems, many of which are tied to the aging Boomer generation. “Whoever is president will be dealing with Social Security, Medicare, drug programs, all of which are budget busters,” he said.

The need to pay for these and other entitlement programs will mean the U.S. will need to borrow money, which puts the country at a global disadvantage, Beaulieu added.

One advantage this nation does have is its demographics, he said. Unlike some countries, “we’re having kids,” at a rate of about 2.1, which is balancing out retirees. In comparison, Russia, where male life expectancy is only 57, is shrinking and will lose 50 million by 2050, “which is the equivalent of the Bubonic Plague,” Beaulieu pointed out. And India, though it will grow almost as much as the U.S., is dealing with a land mass one-third the size.

The U.S. also has industrial advantages. For example, when comparing U.S. Industrial Production to its Gross Domestic Product, “we spend most of our time in a positive track, and we have been for a long time,” Beaulieu said. Currently, goods and services as a percent of GDP is the highest it’s been since World War II.

“We are a profitable nation and prosperous. We are first in technological readiness, quality of research, productivity, profits,” Beaulieu said.

The U.S. is also first in percentage of total world exports of goods and services with Germany, China and then Japan following next. And though many fear China’s growing strength, Beaulieu noted the country has significant demographic problems because of an aging population and restrictions on family size. It also has 125 million more men than women, which raises fears about violence, and significant pollution problems that are killing hundreds of thousands of people.

“China has been on steroids,” Beaulieu said, “but you don’t fix problems like these overnight.”

Beaulieu had these tidbits of advice:

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