The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. tight oil production will generally increase through the early 2040s, when it will surpass 8.2 million barrels per day (b/d) and account for nearly 70% of total U.S. production. Tight oil production made up 54% of the U.S total in 2017. Development of tight oil resources is more sensitive than nontight oil to different assumptions of future crude oil prices, drilling technology, and resource availability, but tight oil remains the largest source of U.S. crude oil production.
Recent growth in U.S. crude oil production has been driven by the development of tight oil resources, primarily in the Permian Basin. Three major tight oil plays in the Permian Basin—the Spraberry, Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp—accounted for 36% of U.S. tight oil production in 2017. Production from these three plays is projected to increase and to account for 43% of cumulative tight oil production through 2050.