According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil demand has been hit hard by the coronavirus and the widespread shutdown of China’s economy. Demand is now expected to fall, in the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years. The IEA has cut their 2020 growth forecast by 365 kb/d to 825 kb/d, the lowest since 2011. Lower-than-expected consumption in the OECD trimmed 2019 growth to 885 kb/d.
The coronavirus outbreak has also led them to revise down the outlook for global refinery runs. Chinese crude throughputs for 1Q20 have been cut by 1.1 mb/d and are now expected to contract by 0.5 mb/d year-on-year. As a result, global runs are forecast to expand by just 0.7 mb/d in 2020.