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EIA Forecasts Increasing Global Crude Production Through 2019

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) new Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent crude oil to average $60 per barrel (b) in 2018 and $61/b in 2019, slightly higher than the $54/b average in 2017. In both 2018 and 2019, EIA expects total global crude oil production to be slightly greater than global consumption, with U.S. crude oil production increasing more than any other country.

EIA forecasts the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price will average $55/b in 2018 and $57/b in 2019, or $4/b and $5/b, respectively, lower than Brent prices. This price difference is expected to narrow from the $6/b average price difference seen in the fourth quarter of 2017 because current constraints on the capacity to transport crude oil from the Cushing, OK storage hub (the geographic location associated with the WTI price) to the U.S. Gulf Coast are expected to gradually lessen. 

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