Declining inventory means that production is less than current consumption which can continue only until the inventory sales ratio falls back to the normal range. The ratio was 1.43 in February and has likely to fallen to 1.40 or slightly less by mid April. When it reaches1.30, the top of the normal range, factories will call back workers to raise production to the then current, but still depressed, level of consumption. This means that the distribution system now has 3-4 days of surplus inventory to absorb before the recession ends.
Source: Reed Construction Data