The latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predicts economic growth—as measured by inflation-adjusted GDP—to continue. The median forecast for GDP growth in 2019 is 2.3%. Respondents anticipate GDP growth will register 1.8% in 2020, unchanged from the October survey. Real GDP increased 2.9% in 2018.
Trade policy continues to be the most widely cited dominant downside risk. Half of respondents in the December survey cites trade policy as the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economy through 2020, considering both probability of occurrence and potential impact.