According to a new study conducted by Rice University economists for the National Manufacturers Association, corporate tax hikes and other tax reform rollbacks under consideration could result in a loss of 1 million fewer jobs in the first two years.
Economists John W. Diamond and George R. Zodrow calculated the effects of raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, increasing the top marginal tax rate, repealing the 20% pass-through deduction, eliminating certain expensing provisions and more. The projected impact of these changes includes:
- 1 million jobs lost in the first two years
- By 2023, GDP would be down by $117 billion, by $190 billion in 2026 and by $119 billion in 2031
- Ordinary capital, or investments in equipment and structures, would be $80 billion less in 2023 and $83 billion and $66 billion less in 2026 and 2031, respectively