EIA Expects Electricity Growth to be Mostly Met by Renewables

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects electricity generation will grow by about 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. Renewable energy sources — chiefly solar — will supply most of that growth.

EIA expects electricity from solar, wind and hydropower combined to account for 22% of total U.S. generation in 2024, increasing to 24% in 2025. Electricity from those three sources made up 21% of U.S. generation in 2023.

EIA forecasts solar will provide 41% more electricity in 2024 than in 2023. Generation from wind will grow 5% in 2024 in EI’s May forecast, but if wind speeds differ significantly from expectations wind generation could change. EIA expects 6% more hydropower generation in 2024 than 2023, with the most significant growth in the Southeast.

“In 2025, we expect generation from solar to exceed the contribution from hydroelectricity for the first year in history,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.

Other highlights from the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) include:

• U.S. retail gasoline prices. EIA forecasts that retail gasoline prices will average near $3.70 per gallon in the United States from April through September, similar to prices during the same period last year. EIA plans to publish a STEO supplement analyzing how refinery operations could affect retail gasoline prices next week in the summer driving season.
• Coal. EIA increased its forecasts for U.S. coal production and exports, as the immediate impact of the closure of the Port of Baltimore has become clearer. EIA now forecasts that U.S. coal exports will total 99 million short tons in 2024 — a 4% increase from its April forecast but still less than expected before the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse. Although EIA also increased its forecast for coal production in 2024 from last month, it still forecasts 14% less coal will be produced in the United States than in 2023.
• Trans Mountain Pipeline. EIA expects that the recent startup of the Trans Mountain Pipeline will alleviate distribution bottlenecks and support the increase of Canada’s production of liquid fuels to about 6.3 million barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 500,000 barrels per day from current production.
• New to STEO: Global oil data tables. Beginning with this month’s STEO, EIA will include new streamlined global oil data tables, which provide a more complete breakout of OPEC+ production data and a new breakout of world crude oil production separate from other liquid fuels production.

The full May 2024 STEO is available on the EIA website.